11 March 2006

Russia

Probably the most important armed conflict in a relatively peaceful region is the continuing activities by Islamic militants and terrorists against Russia. In pursuit of their goal of creating an Islamic state in the northern Caucasus region they have been unable to mount even a rudimentary guerrilla campaign. They have, however, succeeded in mounting a considerable number of disruptive terrorist attacks. The Russians have weathered these attacks reasonably well, and they are unlikely to derail Russia's political and economic development.

Russia has a long way to go in reorienting its economic system and developing democratic institutions, and it is not unreasonable to consider it a newly industrializing state. But this also means that the country's prospects for improvement are considerable. Russia is not plagued by ethnic and religious divisions to as great a degree as many other industrializing countries in the world, and its potential for economic growth in coming decades is great.

NATO-Russia relations

The terrorist onslaught being faced by Russia is greater than that faced by the US. Yet the US attitude, and indeed, the Western attitude toward Russia's struggle has been unsympathetic. The Bush administration hardly ever misses an opportunity to criticize Russia. At the same time, international polls have shown that views of the US among Russians are among the most unfavorable to be found in any country in the world. NATO expansion has been an irritant in Western-Russian relations, but the more Wilsonian foreign policy being pursued by the US, with its energetic pursuit of influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia, has probably been a greater irritant.

All of this is not to say that the relationship has become adversarial; it is far from that and unlikely to get that bad. Still, we can safely, at last, view all the post-Cold War talk about the West and Russia being 'friends' or 'allies' as the rhetoric it is. A more realistic appraisal is that relations are cordial; the two sides are able to work together on certain issues where their interests converge, such as counter-terrorism, nuclear proliferation, energy and the environment.

Other developments

So far, NATO's continued expansion has proceeded smoothly. The introduction of new members has not yet strained the alliance. Some Balkan states are seeking to join, and they are not being discouraged.

In the Balkans, NATO and others have succeeded in keeping the peace in the former Yugoslavia and in managing conflicts there. There still appears to be no imminent resolution of conflicts in Bosnia and Kosovo.

The European Union has recently experienced some difficulties in achieving greater political integration. While continued pressure from global competition has not hindered economic cooperation, it may have stoked concerns about national sovereignty enough to put political integration on hold for the immediate future. Also, the apparent unwillingness of Western Europeans to significantly reduce the economic burden of the state sector does nothing to improve global competitiveness.

Spain and France have in recent years achieved notable success against the ETA terrorist group.

Overall, Europe is a relatively prosperous and peaceful region.