Iraq

Intermittent fighting continued most of the month between US forces and Iraqi Shi’ite guerillas in several southern cities, particularly Najaf and Kerbala (see 7 May). Around the end of the month Moqtada al-Sadr apparently agreed to withdraw his militia from Najaf; the Americans in turn agreed to “suspend offensive operations”. However, occasional fighting continued. Heavy casualties in fighting against US forces and pressure from Shi’ite leaders may have played a role in Sadr’s decision (Reuters).

Brazil

Around the end of the month at least 30 inmates died in a prison riot in Rio de Janeiro (Reuters).

1 MAY 2004

Europe, diplomatic affairs

Estonia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia became members of the European Union (EU) (Reuters).

2 MAY 2004

Panama, politics

Martin Torrijos, son of former dictator Omar Torrijos, won the presidential election. Former president Guillermo Endara came in second in polling; Jose Miguel Aleman, the ruling party candidate, finished third (Reuters).

Serbia and Montenegro

Milorad “Legija” Lukovic, former commander of the Unit for Special Operations (SRO) and a former leader of the Zemun crime gang, turned himself in to police in Belgrade. Lukovic is suspected of involvement in the March 2003 assassination of Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic as well as many crimes during the Slobodan Milosevic era (Reuters).

Western Hemisphere, diplomatic affairs

Mexico withdrew its ambassador from Cuba and expelled the Cuban ambassador. There has been a recent deterioration of relations largely because of Mexico’s criticism of the human rights situation in Cuba (Reuters).

5 MAY 2004

Georgia

Aslan Abashidze, who had been ruling the Adzhara region in rebellion against the government, fled to Russia. There had been protests and calls for him to resign, and it also appeared that Russia had played a role in convincing him to leave (Reuters).

Israel

Senior Hamas leader Mohammed Taha was released from prison for completion of his sentence (Reuters).

7 MAY 2004

Iraq

US forces made some limited attacks in Najaf, including an advance to the local governor’s house about five kilometers from the city’s main Islamic shrines (Reuters).

7-8 MAY 2004

Pakistan

A suicide bombing attack on a Shi’ite Muslim mosque in Karachi killed 15 people and wounded over 125. The next day there was some violence by Shi’ites in the city (Reuters).

9 MAY 2004

Russia

There was a bomb attack in Grozny on a ceremony commemorating victory over Nazi Germany which was being attended by top political and military leaders. Chechen president Akhmad Kadyrov was killed, among others (Reuters).

10 MAY 2004

Philippines, politics

In a presidential election, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo defeated Fernando Poe Jr. The election was accompanied by opposition charges of fraud, and a recount was conducted. On 20 June, Congress announced that Arroyo had 12,905,808 votes and Poe had 11,782,232. In her inaugural address on 30 June, Arroyo outlined an ambitious agenda for the next six years which included cracking down on corruption, balancing the budget, improving infrastructure and reaching peace deals with Muslim and communist rebels (AP).

14 MAY 2004

South Korea, politics

The Constitutional Court overturned parliament’s March impeachment of President Roh Moo-hyun, saying Roh had been removed on insufficient grounds (Reuters).

Liberia

The Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) rebels said they were suspending cooperation with Gyude Bryant’s interim government. LURD had demanded that Bryant sack the finance minister; Bryant had refused (Reuters).

Iraq

US Secretary of State Colin Powell said US forces would leave Iraq if the interim Iraqi government that is to assume power on 30 June asked them to do so and said it could handle its own security, but downplayed the likelihood of that happening. The US administrator in Iraq, Paul Bremer, had said, “If the provisional government asks us to leave we will leave....I don't think that will happen, but obviously we don't stay in countries where we're not welcome” (Reuters).

16 MAY 2004

Dominican Republic

In a presidential election, former President Leonel Fernandez of the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) defeated President President Hipolito Mejia of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD) 57.1% to 33.7%. The sluggish economy was a major campaign issue, and Fernandez said he wanted to achieve stable economic growth and get inflation under control (Reuters).

16-17 MAY 2004

Chad

Government forces quelled a mutiny by a small number of soldiers at their barracks north of N'Djamena (Reuters).

17 MAY 2004

Iraq

A suicide bombing attack killed Izzedin Salim, head of the Iraqi Governing Council, and several others as Salim headed to a meeting at the Coalition Provisional Authority headquarters in Baghdad (Reuters).

18-26 MAY 2004

Israel, Gaza Strip

Israeli forces conducted a major raid on Rafah refugee camp, on the Egyptian border. One of the primary aims was to destroy smuggling tunnels from Egypt. Unfortunately several Palestinian civilians were killed in a confrontation with the Israelis, and there was significant destruction of homes and infrastructure. As with all operations which have such results, the anti-terrorist benefit was questionable (Reuters).

18 MAY 2004

Haiti

A pro-Aristide demonstration of about 10,000 people in Port-au-Prince was broken up by police (Reuters).

20 MAY 2004

Taiwan, politics

President Chen Shui-bian was sworn in for a second term (Reuters).

21 MAY 2004

Middle East and North Africa

There were anti-US demonstrations around the region, including a violent one by thousands of Shi’ites in Manama, Bahrain, and one with tens of thousands of people in Beirut, Lebanon, which was called by Hizbollah (Reuters).

22 MAY 2004

Asia and the Pacific, diplomatic affairs

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang. They discussed Japanese abducted by the North Koreans in the 1970s and North Korea’s nuclear program (Reuters).

23 MAY 2004

Canada, politics

Prime Minister Paul Martin called general elections for 28 June (Reuters).

24 MAY 2004

United States, foreign policy

President Bush delivered a nationally televised address on Iraq policy. Current plans are for the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) that has been running the country to turn over power to an interim Iraqi government by 30 June. Consultations have taken place between the UN, the US, and the US-appointed Iraqi Governing Council to determine the composition of this interim government. The interim government will conduct elections in January 2005 for a transitional government. The transitional government will write and conduct a referendum on a new constitution by the fall of 2005. Under that constitution, Iraq will then elect a permanent government by the end of the year.

Bush said the Iraqi people generally are in favor of these plans but are as yet unable to defend themselves against subversion by Saddam loyalists, foreign terrorists, and other groups. Therefore, the US will keep ground forces of at least 138,000 troops in Iraq for “as long as neccessary.” The US is working to establish an Iraqi army of 35,000 troops. According to Bush, the unwillingness of some Iraqi units to engage rebels was the result of inadequate training and leadership and will be corrected (www.whitehouse.gov).

Bush has repeatedly indicated that the US does not intend to dictate Iraq’s destiny. “Like every nation that has made the journey to democracy, Iraqis will raise up a government that reflects their own culture and values....Iraqis will write their own history, and find their own way. As they do, Iraqis can be certain, a free Iraq will always have a friend in the United States of America”, he said. And yet, occasionally there have been indications from Bush and other officials that the US would be opposed to certain political institutions or policies emerging in Iraq. It is hard to tell whether the US just wants to ensure a unified, democratic Iraq, or whether the US also wants to ensure a US-friendly foreign policy and a secular state. If the later, the continuing turmoil in the country makes it reasonable to wonder whether Iraqis share America’s vision for their future. Also, a strength of 35,000 troops for a new Iraqi army seems far too weak considering the traditional strength of Iraq and its neighbors and the history of the region. A fully sovereign Iraqi government will surely want a larger force.

25 MAY 2004

South Korea, politics

Prime Minister Goh Kun resigned; Finance Minister Lee Hun-jai became acting prime minister (Reuters).

26 MAY 2004

Sudan

In Naivasha, Kenya, representatives of the Sudanese government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) rebels signed agreements which settled the status of three disputed areas -- the Nuba Mountains, Southern Blue Nile and Abyei -- and set up postwar power-sharing arrangements (Reuters).

28 MAY 2004

Western Hemisphere, economic affairs

Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and the United States signed the U.S.-Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). The measure still needs to be ratified by the US Senate. CAFTA would eliminate duties on most US exports to Central America; most of those countries already have duty-free access to the US (Reuters).

29-30 MAY 2004

Saudi Arabia

Al-Qaeda militants attacked oil-related facilities in Khobar. They first attacked offices of oil firms and oil services. They then occupied residential compounds, taking 50 hostages, including many Westerners, in the Oasis compound; 201 other residents were also trapped in the compound. On the 30th Saudi special forces stormed Oasis, freeing 41 hostages, though not before the militants killed nine hostages (Reuters).

30 MAY 2004

Israel, Gaza Strip

An Israeli helicopter killed senior Hamas member Wael Nassar in Gaza City (Reuters).

30-31 MAY 2004

Pakistan

Pro-Taliban cleric Mufti Nizamuddin Shamzai was murdered in Karachi by unidentified gunmen. The next day, a bomb attack on the Ali Raza Imam Bargah mosque killed 15 people. Some Shi’ites responded to these attacks with rioting (Reuters).

31 MAY 2004

Diplomatic affairs

Russia joined the US-sponsored Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), begun a year ago to impede the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement, "The threat of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is global and accordingly requires a global response....We are sure that we can cope with the problem only through a collective effort....We assume that actions within this initiative should not and will not create obstacles to legal economic, scientific and technical cooperation" (Reuters).